29 August 2009

How much more can the Nifty go up ?

Since March of this year we have been seeing an unbelievable yet powerful rally in the global equities and commodities markets. The questions after every week of gain which haunt people are "Is the rally now almost over?" and "How much more can we go?" There is no question that in October and then in March Nifty was very oversold and near to its lowest valuation of around 9 P/E. Since then we have seen valuations climb up now to almost 16 P/E.

Not going into much of details of Elliot Wave and the acceptance of Wave Counts by different groups of "Ellioticians", we can assume that Jan 2008 high of ~6300 was the end of wave 5 of a bull market (marked by negative divergence and "all round" participation). Then we had a major slide till 2250 in Oct 2008, (see the 5 wave subdivision marked by red "X") confirming this as wave A. We are seeing the Wave B in action, (see the green "X" which makes it feel as a 3 wave structure).
So in my opinion, as I have labeled in the chart (2 year weekly), we should see the end of wave B pretty soon. As we are almost near the critical 61.8% retracement of 4800 and still to see another momentum surge (which should be lower than the previous high, see MACD), we can go almost upto 5450 before this insane bull run ends.

The best way to identify this "End" would be to check for negative divergences in MACD, RSI and Volume. And to add to it the critical fibonacci levels. So keep an eye on 4800 and 5400 levels. 

If we are to move above 4800, it would be a very tough market to play as there would be huge corrections followed by equally strong upmoves purely pushed by liquidity and "dumb money". It is known that market tops are made violently. I am sure till we reach 5400 in nifty we will hardly see traders shorting the market and the PCR scaling new highs. Even the bears will think that we are in some real bull market. 

So if wave B ends between 4800-5400, where will wave C take us?

27 August 2009

Current Nifty Trend as of Aug 27

Looking at the current trend in the Nifty we see a very evident "Cup and Handle" continuation pattern. The overhead resistance of 4700-4730 remains to be challenged. Last few days of the uptrend seems to be losing steam.

We can expect a small retracement back to 4530-4480 or a sideways movement to get rid of the overbought conditions. After which a strong upmove can be expected which will face resistance at 4790 (62% Fibonacci Retracement of the entire bear market). If that is cleared levels of 5000 can be easily seen within few trading days.

The best way to play would be to Sell 5000 September CE for the immediate stagnancy or correction for aggressive traders.
Conservative traders can wait till the 4790 resistance is broken to Buy Calls.