29 January 2010

Nifty : Trendline Support

4 comments:

Faisal Humayun said...

very interesting analysis...No doubt that there is more downside left in the markets...The RBI action went down pretty well with the markets...However, the US economy expanding at 5.7% did not go well with the US markets...some deep cuts there...So global cues might not remain that great leading to weakness in our indices...

I also think that around 4500 levels would be a zone of major support...below that we can easily see 4000-4200 levels...

Was just reading in Economic times that the first and last budgets of Governments are the best (historically)...The second is generally the one where focus is on controlling deficits...RBI governer also gave some indication of that in his speech yesterday...I think we are in for some serious downside in the next 2-3 months...

Tarique Anwar said...

Nifty was already oversold, the expectation of a sell off was more than bearish! Surely below 4500, things start looking more gloomy as we will start making lower lows. Budget is still too far for this leg of correction. May be it will only come to the rescue when it ends at whatever level it has to.. !!

plenipot said...

Good post

Again I feel social indicators are bearish and thats the reason for the fall since January. Where it stops is anybody's guess but market's inability to bounce off oversold levels today (02/02) indicates something.

My sense is that this phase will all be done by March 1st week and this has no corelation with budget. After all what is news anyway? :-)

Tarique Anwar said...

yes the bounce has been a weak one and certainly shows that internals of the market is weak and there are much more sellers waiting. yesterday's bounce was on low volume and todays sell off was also not on huge volumes.. maybe people are expecting 4800 to hold but if this correction continues i guess we can see volumes increase as the next stop is around 4600 where the 200dma is sitting.

as far as the news is concerned i felt there will be a good bounce after the steep fall and hence i expected a bigger upward correction, and that had to be backed by some good news.. alas it never came.. lets see how we are treated tomorrow by the market, i guess 4800 should hold for some more time 1-2 day, before it gives way..

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