31 October 2009

Nifty : 4700 revisited

Severe correction has gripped markets all over the world. India has been weaker than some of its Asian peers. Is it the end of the rally? Take a look at the chart.



4690-4730 was a tough nut to crack for Nifty and it took 4 attempts to break it convincingly. According to classical technicals this should act as a support on the way down. The way Nifty has been cutting through moving averages it seems only a level support can come for rescue. But even if this fails (while I write US markets are down by over 2%) some kind of "Black Tuesday" awaits us. Monday is a day off (thankfully!).

Bull Case from now on would depend on, when do we get a bounce from these oversold levels. A bounce too little too late would definitely break the back of all bulls.

I recently came across some article which suggested overlapping of 4th wave and 1st wave (for a small period of time) can be expected in Diagonals. I need to get some more confirmation on it. But whatever be the case the equity markets are very precariously poised at the moment.

1 comments:

Faisal Humayun said...

For sure the markets are not looking great for the moment...Besides technical factors, there are not many fndamental factors which would trigger a sharp counter rally in the markets...

In US, the dip in comsumer sentiment is a dampner...In India,the September IIP numbers are not expected to be great...China has also said that the stimulus needs to go on in order to avoid another slump...This clearly suggest te world is still on artificial support...

These factors combined, make it a perfect recipe for some more downside in the near term...

I think some more stimulus package is coming (especially in the context of US) and that might be the positive trigger...

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