02 October 2009

S&P 500 : Start of a significant correction ?

Poor economic data have given bulls a shock and all hopes of Dow moving into 5 digits will rest in peace for some more time. Lets take a look into the daily chart of S&P 500 as of October 1st.

The lower trendline was broken though we have not convincingly gone below 21 day EMA. But if we get another down day which is pointed by the futures we will break it. The break from the rising wedge is a strong bearish pattern.

The height of the wedge is 125 points, which should be the minimum target for this leg down, with minor support coming at 975 which is 100 day EMA. If that does not hold we can easily see levels of 925. Which is roughly the target of the rising wedge breakdown. We also see that the index has spent around two months in the range of 875-950, which can act as a support as "value buyers" can get in those levels.

Well only time will tell how severe this correction is going to be. Will the dip get fiercely bought, or it will become a crack.


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