10 April 2011

Friday : A prelude to Next Week? - Part II

Continuing our study of Friday closings, lets check out what happens when Friday closes on a positive note.

As you can see out of 387 total instances there are 132 negative closings for next week and 216 positives (34% to 56% in favor of positive closing). In a bear market (price below 200 dma), positive Friday closing leads to 75 positive closings for next week and 38 negative closings in a total of 128 observations (30% to 59% in favor of positive closings). In case of a bull market we have a total of 236 such cases, where 127 (54%) has led to positive closing and 87 (37%) has been negative closing.

What can be said, with some confidence is that there are higher chances of markets giving a positive return next week, if the Friday had been a positive day. Whether we are in bull market or not doesn't really matter much.


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