04 July 2011

Can we be more Stock Specific?

Though I did not received the above question as a feedback, I am trying to respond to that! As all of us know, trading only a single counter can not only be difficult, it can also be frustrating. At times there is not enough movement or the direction/pattern is very confusing. So here I am trying to resolve to these issues.

We have seen Nifty take a huge leap in last few weeks and hit the resistance zone of 5600-5700. Expectations of any more rise anytime soon is certainly very optimistic, the best scenario I can think of is a consolidation phase and then rally towards 5900. The amount of strength in the market is certainly making me keep the quick retracement option a less likely scenario.

So with this backdrop where Nifty itself consolidates, keeping market participants bullish, we can expect the second tier stocks, most famously called midcaps to outperform the Nifty itself. These stocks have been beaten down in the fall to 5200, but could not rally as much as Nifty. So these counters are certain to play a catch up now.

I am attaching a list of very oversold stocks, which is calculated based on their distance from 200 day moving average. This distance is expressed in percentage. These stocks no doubt are weak, but they can give exciting rallies, mostly based on short covering.

GTL -325% GTLINFRA -147% TRIVENI -127% LITL -94% KSOILS -72% ORBITCORP -62% UNITECH -62% GVKPIL -61% PATELENG -59% IVRCLINFRA -44% PFC -42% BEML -42% RELMEDIA -39% GTOFFSHORE -38% INDIACEM -37% RECLTD -36% DCHL -35% KFA -34% SUNTV -33% JINDALSWHL -32% RELINFRA -32% PATNI -30% PTC -30% HCC -29% GMRINFRA -28% MOSERBAER -27% ABAN -27% BGRENERGY -26% BAJAJHIND -26%

Selection of stocks should be based on other parameters as well, like proper base formation and volumes on up days.

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