30 June 2011

Nifty : June Expiry

I am doing this post especially for the F&O expiry due today. This series has been a long one and Nifty has gone from 5600 to 5200 and then back to 5600! Its one of those rare series where the Market does a full circle.

Anyway coming to the developments for this series, as you can see the 1st quadrant shows the option build up till yesterday. The 2nd quadrant shows the max pain picture, while the 3rd shows it in more detail. One thing very clearly comes out is that all action will be around the 5600 pivot. Max pain shows that we can expect expiry around 5550 level, but we things can change drastically even on the last hour of expiry as we all know.

What adds some twist to all the observation is the amount of 5700 CE addition, which can be seen in the 4th quadrant. Over 2.5 million shares added on the last day, when it was quoting around 2 to 3 rupees, points out to some major buying interest. Some player/s have spent 5-8 million rupees in buying lottery tickets.

Now the question is, whether this is some sort of gamble someone is playing on expectations of a massive short squeeze, remember for this option to be of any worth, Nifty should be closing above 5700, ideally over 5710 (a 2% rally)! Also as there has been increase in OI of this CE, someone must have obliged the buyer by selling it. Surely, probably, statistically this 5 to 8 million rupees looks to be easy money for the writer, but he faces massive losses if there is such, not exactly a white swan event.

If we look at the charts, chances of a correction are much higher, as Nifty is overbought and showing divergence in short term. But short squeeze is something which can never be ruled out. In my opinion Nifty should be jumping around a lot today, satisfying option buyers and sellers of both 5500 and 5600 strike prices and who knows even 5700!

Point to be noted would be that a good opening over 5600-5630 would certainly be in bulls favor and remember Nifty hardly spent anytime in 5600-5700 region while coming down, so the resistance in this area if at all would be weak.


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