04 December 2010

Nifty : Popgun Shot?

Few months back I came across an interesting candle formation which by its author was called popgun. Popgun is essentially a toy gun which has its bullet attached to the gun itself by a string. When you shoot, the bullet fires ahead but after travelling the distance equal to the length of the string, gets pulled back to the shooter!

This popgun formation can be identified by 2 candles. First would be an inside candle and the second an outside. Which means the 1st candle would be completely within the shadow of its preceding candle and also completely within the candle that follows it.

The significance of this pattern is that prices will breakout from the range and move a good amount and then retrace "significantly". The definition of significantly is definitely not quantifiable but in my opinion a 50% should be the minimum.

Lets see this in action.

The weekly chart of nifty here shows 2 instances of it. First after the january crash nifty forms this popgun pattern and then falls to 4500 level, but as this pattern was made in the range of 5000-5500 after going to 4500 it comes back to the same level where it formed the pattern!
Next one is almost at the end of 2008 when nifty forms the same pattern around 2500-2800 range, rallies to over 3200 and then return back to the same level!

Interesting isn't it? And definitely worth more study. So why not track this pattern real time? Below is the daily chart of Nifty futures as of now.

You can see how Nifty futures of December expiry makes this same pattern right at the bottom of this correction which is around 5700. Prices then rally but looks like losing steam around 6000 levels. If one is to believe this candle formation we should see prices falling back significantly closer to 5700 levels or maybe even lower!
My conviction increases due to the fact that not only nifty but their are many banking and material stocks that are also showing this pattern. To name a major few that I came across are Axis Bank, Andhra Bank and HDFC Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Hindalco and Hindustan Zinc!

Now to add a bit of food for thought to it, please check the monthly chart below and also the same pattern right at the beginning of the year 2009 !! What should happen if this popgun materializes?


Post a Comment